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Welcome to my website

Thilo R Huning

Senior Lecturer in Economics at the University of York

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Economic History · Political Economy · Economic Geography

I'm senior lecturer in economics at the University of York, interested in the long-run determinants of modern growth and inequality between states, groups, and across space.

My Research

My research is mostly focused on economic history, political economy and economic geography. I usually have some elements of geographic variations in large datasets that allow me to combine my background in data science with my interest in how the economy today works, and came into being.

Research News

"How Britain Unified Germany:
Trade Routes and the Formation of the Zollverein"

Conditionally accepted at the Journal of Economic History
joint with Nikolaus Wolf

Abstract: Does the location of a state relative to others matter?  We argue that a state's location can affect its bargaining power, and thereby multilateral relations, if trade costs depend on trade routes that pass through other states. This is an important, yet neglected aspect of economic history. We show how an exogenous border change - caused by Britain’s intervention at Vienna in 1815---affected the location and trade routes of Prussia and other German states. We find that this border change led to the formation of the first customs union in history, the German Zollverein of 1834.

Peer-Reviewed Publications

"Can Winegrowing Cause Rural Development? Evidence from Baden-Württemberg"

European Review of Economic History
joint with Fabian Wahl

Abstract: Historical winegrowing shaped modern rural development, even in areas in which its cultivation was given up after the early modern period. We provide evidence for this idea from municipality level data on Southwestern German viticulture over the last 1,300 years, and find a significant link between historical winegrowing and modern economic development. We rely on cross-sectional regressions and on an instrumental variable strategy using precipitation seasonality. Our findings highlight two mechanisms through which historical viticulture affected modern development: by leaving behind a more egalitarian inheritance norm, and a more collectivist society.

"You Reap What You Know: Appropriability and the Origin of European States"

European Journal of Political Economy
joint with Fabian Wahl

Abstract: Geography provides some states with a higher level of soil quality than others, and in addition has allowed some historical states to appropriate agricultural output at lower costs. To test this empirically, we propose a new measure of appropriability: caloric observability. The idea behind this measure is that geography induces variation between states because their signals about agricultural output differ in precision. Caloric observability is robustly and significantly correlated with proxies of government success on three levels: Data on all European states 1300–1700, our new data set on the Holy Roman Empire 1150–1789, and a municipality-level data set of 1545 Duchy of Württemberg.

"The Fetters of Inheritance? Equal Partition and Regional Economic Development"

European Economic Review
joint with Fabian Wahl

Abstract: Did European regions industrialize first because their institutions fostered urbanization? We argue that culture, precisely an agricultural inheritance tradition that would immobilize the rural population, was no obstacle to economic growth (as commonly thought). Instead, equal partition tied excess labor to the land and fostered the establishment of a low-wage low-skill industry there. Using data for the German state of Baden-Württemberg, as well as for the whole of West Germany, we document that these equal partition areas are richer than primogeniture areas today. With a focus on identification, we conduct fuzzy spatial RDD regressions for 1895, the 1950s, and today. We find that inheritance rules caused—in line with our theoretical predictions—higher incomes, population densities, and industrialization levels in equal partition areas. We document that equal partition reduced emigration. Results suggest that more than a third of the overall inter-regional difference in average per capita income in present-day Baden Württemberg—or 598 Euro—can be attributed to equal partition. The reasons for Europe’s uniqueness do not lie in the supremacy of primogeniture, and have to be searched elsewhere.

"The origins of agricultural inheritance traditions"

Journal of Comparative Economics
joint with Fabian Wahl

Abstract: We investigate the origins of agricultural inheritance traditions, equal partition and primogeniture. Our case study is the German state of Baden-Württemberg. Our empirical findings suggest that rural inheritance traditions were primarily determined by geography. First, fertile soils allowed splitting of the land among siblings for longer and with fewer conflicts, and hence we find more equal partition in areas with higher soil quality, especially at elevation levels conducive to intensive agriculture. Second, geography determined the settlement pattern. Areas that were settled before the Middle Ages, when land was abundant and free, are more likely to apply equal partition today. In areas that were largely uninhabited until the Middle Ages, primogeniture is the norm. We argue that these areas were deforested with the obligation of primogeniture, imposed by feudal lords.

"Early and Medieval Periods in German Economic History"

Oxford Research Encyclopedias: Economics and Finance
joint with Fabian Wahl

Abstract: The study of the Holy Roman Empire, a medieval state on the territory of modern-day Germany and Central Europe, has attracted generations of qualitative economic historians and quantitative scholars from various fields. Its bordering position between Roman and Germanic legacies, its Carolingian inheritance, and the numerous small states emerging from 1150 onward, on the one hand, are suspected to have hindered market integration, and on the other, allowed states to compete. This has inspired many research questions around differences and communalities in culture, the origin of the state, the integration of good and financial markets, and technology inventions, such the printing press. While little is still known about the economy of the rural population, cities and their economic conditions have been extensively studied from the angles of economic geography, institutionalism, and for their influence on early human capital accumulation. The literature has stressed that Germany at this time cannot be seen as a closed economy, but only in the context of Europe and the wider world. Global events, such as the Black Death, and European particularities, such as the Catholic Church, never stopped at countries’ borders. As such, the literature provides an understanding for the prelude to radical changes, such as the Lutheran Reformation, religious wars, and the coming of the modern age with its economic innovations.

Work In Progress

"Safer but poorer in numbers: Violence and spatial misallocation in the Jim Crow South"
joint with James P. Choy

Abstract: Why do people prefer to live near other members of their own ethnic groups? One reason is that ethnic communities provide protection from external threats. We study Black migration in the 1930s US South and find that Blacks prefer to migrate to areas
with relatively larger Black populations, in part because larger Black communities provide protection from White racial violence. Black migrants choose destinations with larger Black populations even though those destinations offer relatively lower Black wages. Counterfactually, if racial violence were eliminated, Blacks would
have migrated to areas with relatively smaller Black populations and relatively higher Black wages.

"Constructive Destruction? How Allied Bombing facilitated
Germany’s Rise to Riches"
joint with Fabian Wahl and Hans-Joachim Voth

Abstract: We investigate the economic effects of the strategic dispersal of German armament and war-related industries to the countryside by the Nazis at the end of WW II. We find significant and positive effects of these re-locations on population growth and industrialization of the areas to which the industries were re-located. The effect seems to be particularly strong for medium-sized locations and is relatively localized. We also find effects for areas without any pre-war industrial activity. The population effect is only a medium-run one as we do not see it after the 1980s. Effects on other measures of industrial development, however, persist until today. This suggests a significant but limited role for agglomeration economies and also offers an explanation for Germany’s famously decentralized industry structure with a lot of companies in the countryside and smaller towns.

"Does regional identity guide investments? Evidence from German license plates ”
joint with Fabian Wahl

Abstract: In this paper, we present novel data from the German-speaking area on 13,422 venture capital investments between 1999 and 2019, and document a novel and yet unexplained contributor to investors’ home bias. We propose a new measure of regional identity based on a recent vehicle license plate liberalization in Germany, and leverage on a unique dataset of historical borders to show how regional identity is formed. We use an instrumental strategy to establish a causal link between historical political instability, regional identity, and the home bias. Our results indicate that a common regional identity is highly relevant for investment decisions.

"The Geological Origins of Comparative Development”
joint with Andreas Link and Fabian Wahl

Abstract: This paper studies the role of geology in the origins of comparative economic development. We show that areas subject to a specific process in geology—orogenesis—were more likely to be settled after the Neolithic Revolution. The science of geology
indicates that orogenesis (mountain formation through plate convergence) caused variation to several geographic variables that, as we show empirically, explain the location of early archeological sites within orogenetic zones: First, the soil in these zones was richer in phosphorus, and groundwater was more readily available, factors
relevant to settled agriculture. Second, clay, an early building material, was also accessible. Third, orogenic zones are also rich in several metals, as well as obsidian, all of which were relevant to early sites. Our results indicate that a set of geographic factors linked to early sites goes back to the same geological process.

"Britain has had enough of experts? Social networks and the Brexit referendum"
joint with Giacomo de Luca and Paulo Santos Monteiro

Abstract: We investigate the impact of social media on the 2016 referendum on the United Kingdom membership of the European Union. We leverage 18 million geo-located Twitter messages originating from the UK in the weeks before the referendum. Using electoral wards as unit of observation, we explore how exogenous variation in Twitter exposure affected the vote share in favor of leaving the EU. Our estimates suggest that in electoral wards less exposed to Twitter the percentage who voted to leave the EU was greater. This is confirmed across several specifications and approaches, including two very different IV identification strategies to address the non-randomness of Twitter usage. To interpret our findings, we propose a model of how bounded rational voters learn in social media networks vulnerable to fake news, and we validate the theoretical framework by estimating how Remain and Leave tweets propagated differently on Twitter in the two months leading to the EU referendum.

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About Me

I'm a senior lecturer in economics at University of York, interested in the long-run determinants of modern growth and inequality between states, groups, and across space.

 

© 2023 Thilo R Huning

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